Research

The Business of the University

How does money really flow in and around universities? Misconceptions and myths about how things are funded are common across campus and in the community beyond. Now available via open access (free to download!) this book is based on my experience as a senior central administrator. I’ve aimed the book at a wide range of campus stakeholders, and it draws on plenty of data and visuals to explain where the money comes from and how it gets spent in support of education, research, and public service.

Mosquito Flight Range at Biosphere 2

How does habitat availability affect Aedes aegypti flight distance? We measured some significant effects across three model ecosystems (rainforest, savanna, fog desert) at the UA’s Biosphere 2 facility. Led by UA colleague and former postdoc Heidi Brown. Funded by NIAID/NIH.

Climate Change & Dengue Transmission

Much of my climate research utilizes multivariate statistics and related numerical tools to better diagnose and predict climate and environmental links. I have extensive experience in the techniques of synoptic climatology, and I also use spatial modeling approaches, dynamic simulation, and other advanced methods.

Southwest Climate Change Impacts

Declining snowpack and streamflow, reduced crop yields, increased warming and drought, and growing threats to public health in southwestern cities, home to more than 90% of the region’s population. With colleagues from UA and across the region. Supported by USGCRP.

The Environmental Geography of Beer

Yes, quite seriously, an explanation of the “terroir” of beer styles. How beer’s ingredients of water, malted barley, hops and yeast are shaped by climate, ecology, soil, and more. With my good  friend, colleague and fellow homebrewer, Steve Yool.

Chagas Disease in Arequipa, Peru

Studied urban infestation by the Chagas disease vector Triatoma infestans (Kissing bug) in Arequipa, Peru. Modeled the associations between household infestation and local-scale social and environmental measures, with housing density, elevation, land surface temperature, and locality type being key factors. With graduate student Stephen Delgado and multiple colleagues. Funded by NIAID/NIH and others.

Climate Controls on Influenza Seasonality

We modeled epidemiological and climatic information from 78 study sites sampled globally. We identified two types of environmental conditions associated with seasonal influenza epidemics: “cold-dry” and “humid-rainy”. This provided a simple climate-based model rooted in empirical data that accounts for the diversity of seasonal influenza patterns observed across temperate, subtropical and tropical climates. With graduate student James Tamerius and collaborators at NIH and elsewhere. Funded by NIH.

Global Air Temperature

Analyzed the combined contributions of worldwide SST variability on the global SAT signal using principal components of detrended SST. Found that removing the underlying combined annual, decadal, and multi-decadal SST variability from the SAT time series reveals a nearly monotonic global warming trend in SAT since about 1900. With USGS collaborator Greg McCabe.

West Nile Virus & Climate Change

Using downscaled general circulation model output, we calculated a WNV vector’s response to climate change across the southern United States using DyMSiM, the process-based mosquito-climate model developed in our lab. With graduate student Cory Morin. Funded by NOAA/CLIMAS.

DyMSiM

The Dynamic Mosquito Simulation Model (DyMSiM) is a process-based dynamic simulation model of mosquito populations, driven by climate data. It enables estimation of mosquito populations for locations with daily temperature and precipitation information. DyMSiM was developed to overcome the inherent data limitations of statistical models in mosquito modeling. With graduate student Cory Morin. Funded by NOAA/CLIMAS and NSF.

DyMSiM website

Valley Fever

Valley fever (Coccidioidomycosis) is caused by the soil-dwelling fungi Coccidioides spp. endemic to arid regions in the western hemisphere. Cocci incidence is linked in part to seasonal precipitation and temperature cycles, although details remain elusive. With graduate students Korine Kolivras and James Tamerius, and postdocs Mary Glueck & Heidi Brown. Funded by NOAA/CLIMAS and by EPA/STAR.

Mosquito Mapping

Mosquito disease vector mapping of the potential habitat/ecological niche of West Nile virus vector mosquitoes Culex quinquefasciatus. Effective geospatial mosquito modeling is challenging because of limited surveillance data, which is a principal reason why we subsequently developed DyMSiM. With graduate student Chris Uejio. Funded by NOAA/CLIMAS and by NSF.

Southwest Drought

Analysis and explanation of drought patterns over time and space aimed at decision-makers. For example, water-year precipitation for selected Arizona climate divisions. Included a top 10 Q&A about drought report. With graduate student Jenna McPhee Meyers. Funded by NOAA/CLIMAS and ABOR/TRIF/WSP.

Downscaling Climate Forecasts

Extending NWS/CPC downscaling of long-lead seasonal climate prediction methods, through large-scale probabilistic climate forecasts of temperature and precipitation to the local station level. In collaboration with NOAA Climate Services Division and NWS Western Region Headquarters with Jenna McPhee Meyers, graduate student. Funded in part by NOAA/CLIMAS.

Air Quality Trends

What are the underlying trends in Southwest US urban air quality once we remove the key influence of climate variability? We developed the methods and identified air pollution patterns for many cities in the region, for example, long-term ozone trends. With Erika Wise, graduate student. Funded by NOAA/CLIMAS.

SMOGMAP

The System for Management, Observation and GIS Modeling of Air Pollution (SMOGMAP) was developed as a state of the art geo-referenced emissions inventory for the Tucson region, including anthropogenic VOCs, NOx, and biogenic emissions, as well as statistical spatial modeling of ozone and other pollutants. It was created as a planning tool for assessment of air pollution emissions and air quality mapping. With graduate student Jeremy Diem. Funded by PAG.

WestMap

The Western Climate Mapping Initiative (WestMap) was created to provide easy-to-use fine-scale climate data and user analysis tools, including additional educational resources. With postdoc Mary Glueck and collaborators at WRCC. Funded by NOAA/TRACS.

WestMap website

Fine-Scale Mapping

Fine-scale climate mapping that developed 1 km2 gridded winter precipitation and temperature data for Arizona and New Mexico, 1961-1999. With graduate student David Brown. Funded by NOAA/CLIMAS.

Animation of fine-scale modeled precipitation data, regular coarse interpolation, and anomalies from average precipitation

Sub-Regional Winter Precipitation Anomalies

Why do certain small areas of the Southwest sometimes experience winter precipitation patterns opposite to their neighbors? We developed a regionalization and climate diagnostics for key sub-regions to explain why. For example, the map shows the least-correlated adjacent precipitation sub-regions in the Southwest US. With graduate student James Tamerius. Funded by NOAA/CLIMAS.

Reconstructing Past Climate

We developed novel reconstructions of past Southwest climate using linear regression and neural networks. Results were integrated in a tool to summarize past drought with respect to conditions during the 20th century, and to downscale paleoclimate information. With postdoc Teresa Cavazos and LTRR colleagues. Funded by NOAA/CLIMAS.

Climate of the Southwest

As part of extensive stakeholder engagement in the CLIMAS project, we developed materials and a review article on the Climate of the Southwest, including a “Southwest Climate 101” overview suitable for a wide range of users. With graduate students Greg Packin & Kurt Angersbach, and LTRR colleagues. Funded by NOAA/CLIMAS.

Cabeza Prieta Precipitation Variability

Analyzed the nature and causes of seasonal precipitation variability in this remote part of the Southwest, where there are almost no routine climate records. Assimilated data from a network of storage gauges (low-tech precip gauges that need only be checked infrequently) on the Cabeza Prieta National Wildlife Refuge and adjacent areas to visualize and explain, for example, fine-scale winter precipitation anomalies.

Real-Time Air Quality Maps

Developed algorithms for real-time mapping of ozone, overcoming the constraint of only 5-10 sampling sites across the domain. The models had to work with minimal inputs and were successful in producing realistic ozone maps. This project was part of a bigger project for public, educational and health outreach in collaboration with Pima DEQ, PAG and UA public health colleagues. With graduate student Joe Abraham. Funded by the EPA EMPACT program.

Example of the ozone animation

North American Monsoon Variability

Questions about the monsoon are tantalizing and endless… How does it work? What are the causes of monsoon variability? Are there seasonal predictors of the monsoon? What determines spatial precipitation variability? Monsoon projects have included a major review, a regionalization and variability study, and collaboration on moisture sources identified via isotopes (with LTRR colleagues). A further project examined SST-related controls using neural network techniques. With graduate student Erik Glenn and postdoc Teresa Cavazos. Funded by NOAA/CLIMAS.

Tucson Heat Island

Quantified urban heat island warming in Tucson and mapped examples of temperature patterns and local circulation over the city. The research was an integrated active learning and fieldwork component of several introductory undergraduate climatology classes.

HERO

The Human Environment Research Observatory (HERO) network developed protocols for long-term monitoring of human-environment relationships in MA, PA, KS and AZ/Mexico. We established the Southwest and Mexico Border Region HERO (SOMBRHERO) site, to evaluate how changing land use and climate variation/change affect the vulnerabilities of people and places. With postdoc Cindy Sorrensen. Funded by NSF GRS.

Dust Climatology

Developed climatological return periods for wind and precipitation conditions associated with dust events in Arizona, i.e., exceedances of EPA standards for particulate matter <10 micrometers (PM10). Flagged PM10 exceedances caused by exceptional natural conditions, such as high winds and drought and identified natural exceptional events (defined as a recurrence interval of 1 in 1000 days, or the 99.9th percentile of observations), either for wind conditions alone, or for winds >= 97th percentile of observations occurring jointly with short-or-long-term precipitation conditions <= 4th percentile of observations. With postdoc Gregg Garfin. Funded by ADEQ Air Quality Division.

Wildfire & Climate

Discovered and modeled key links between climate variability and wildfire (e.g., area burned) and developed an interactive online climate-wildfire tool for decision-makers. With graduate student Mike Crimmins. This project was a collaboration with the WALTER Wildfire Alternatives project.

Neural Networks Versus Regression for Ozone

A series of direct comparisons for eight cities showed that neural networks can provide modest improvements over regression-based daily ozone predictions, and that the performance of either type of model is improved by including persistence information.

North American Monsoon Review

Published the first comprehensive literature review of the North American monsoon, highlighting historical development
and major research themes. Integrated knowledge on moisture sources, gulf surges, interactions with upper-level midlatitude troughs, tropical easterly waves and mesoscale features. With graduate student David Adams.